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GOOGL · Q3 2026 Cloud Revenue

CLOUDTrading

Alphabet Inc. · Internet & Cloud · settles in USDC

Trading closes in
50d 20h
Oct 27, 2026, 20:00 UTC
Market-implied cloud revenue?Inverted from the current LONG price through this market's settlement curve. Shown as an exact figure only where the price maps to a unique metric value.
$15.68B
+1.83% implied surprise
Reference value
$15.40B

The benchmark this market prices surprises against. Fixed at creation and immutable.

Long price
$0.5730

Pays up to $0.9500

Short price
$0.4270

Pays up to $0.9500

Liquidity
$584.86K

720,000.00 sets open interest

Settlement payoff

What one claim is worth at every possible reported cloud revenue

7d LONG price
$0.00$0.25$0.50$0.75$1.00REFERENCEIMPLIED$13.1B$14.2B$15.4B$16.6B$17.7B
LONG settlementSHORT settlement
if reported at $15.68BL $0.5730S $0.4270

Price history

LONG price and the metric expectation it implies

$0.50$0.55$0.60Sep 1now
LONG price $0.5730implies $15.68BHover to inspect

What this market settles against

Google Cloud segment revenues for the quarter, as disclosed in the segment results table of Alphabet's Q3 2026 earnings release.

How the payout is calculated

Settlement is a pure function of the reported figure. There is no discretion at resolution: given the number, anyone can compute the outcome and reproduce it exactly.

// 1. clamp the reported value into the priced domain
bounded   = clamp(reported, $13.09B, $17.71B)

// 2. normalise against the reference value
score     = (bounded − $15.40B) ÷ $15.40B

// 3. map onto the LONG share of collateral
longShare = clamp(0.50 + 4.00 × score, $0.0500, $0.9500)
shortShare = 1.00 − longShare
Reference value
$15.40B

The benchmark this market prices surprises against. Fixed at creation and immutable.

Leverage factor
4.00×

LONG share moves this much per 1.00 of proportional surprise.

Priced domain
$13.09B to $17.71B

Reported values outside this range settle at the nearest bound.

Payout range
$0.0500 to $0.9500

Hard floor and cap per claim. Neither side can ever be worth nothing or everything.

Fully priced region

Between $13.67B and $17.13B the payoff responds continuously to the size of the surprise. Beyond those points each side is pinned to its clamp, so a price sitting on a clamp no longer implies a single metric value, and the interface says “approx” rather than printing a fabricated number.

Methodology

Alphabet reports Google Cloud revenue as a discrete line. Search and YouTube advertising revenues are disclosed on the same table and are candidates for future markets on the same earnings event.

Buying routes through the protocol: your collateral is split into both claims, and the side you did not want is sold into the pool for more of the side you did.
USDCYou pay
0
0.0000USDC~$0.00
GOOGL-CLOUD-LYou receive
0
0.0000holding~$0.00 at current price
Market price$0.5730
Max settlementThe highest value one claim can settle at, set by this market's payout cap.$0.9500
Protocol fee0.00%

Settles against the reported figure on Oct 27, 2026. Payouts are capped at $0.9500 and floored at $0.0500 per claim.