NVDA · Q3 FY2027 Gross Margin
GMTradingNVIDIA Corporation · Semiconductors · settles in USDC
The benchmark this market prices surprises against. Fixed at creation and immutable.
Pays up to $0.9500
Pays up to $0.9500
940,000.00 sets open interest
Settlement payoff
What one claim is worth at every possible reported gross margin
Price history
LONG price and the metric expectation it implies
What this market settles against
Non-GAAP gross margin for the quarter, expressed as a percentage to two decimal places, as stated in NVIDIA's Q3 FY2027 earnings release.
How the payout is calculated
Settlement is a pure function of the reported figure. There is no discretion at resolution: given the number, anyone can compute the outcome and reproduce it exactly.
// 1. clamp the reported value into the priced domain bounded = clamp(reported, 67.05%, 81.95%) // 2. normalise against the reference value score = (bounded − 74.50%) ÷ 74.50% // 3. map onto the LONG share of collateral longShare = clamp(0.50 + 12.00 × score, $0.0500, $0.9500) shortShare = 1.00 − longShare
The benchmark this market prices surprises against. Fixed at creation and immutable.
LONG share moves this much per 1.00 of proportional surprise.
Reported values outside this range settle at the nearest bound.
Hard floor and cap per claim. Neither side can ever be worth nothing or everything.
Fully priced region
Between 71.71% and 77.29% the payoff responds continuously to the size of the surprise. Beyond those points each side is pinned to its clamp, so a price sitting on a clamp no longer implies a single metric value, and the interface says “approx” rather than printing a fabricated number.
Methodology
Margin moves in a far narrower band than revenue, so this market carries a much higher leverage factor (12x versus 2.5x on revenue). A 1% margin surprise is a large event; a 1% revenue surprise is noise. Calibrating sensitivity per metric is why the payoff curve is configured per market rather than globally.
Settles against the reported figure on Nov 18, 2026. Payouts are capped at $0.9500 and floored at $0.0500 per claim.