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NVDA · Q3 FY2027 Gross Margin

GMTrading

NVIDIA Corporation · Semiconductors · settles in USDC

Trading closes in
72d 21h
Nov 18, 2026, 21:30 UTC
Market-implied gross margin?Inverted from the current LONG price through this market's settlement curve. Shown as an exact figure only where the price maps to a unique metric value.
74.21%
-0.38% implied surprise
Reference value
74.50%

The benchmark this market prices surprises against. Fixed at creation and immutable.

Long price
$0.4540

Pays up to $0.9500

Short price
$0.5460

Pays up to $0.9500

Liquidity
$754.96K

940,000.00 sets open interest

Settlement payoff

What one claim is worth at every possible reported gross margin

7d LONG price
$0.00$0.25$0.50$0.75$1.00REFERENCEIMPLIED67.1%70.8%74.5%78.2%82.0%
LONG settlementSHORT settlement
if reported at 74.21%L $0.4540S $0.5460

Price history

LONG price and the metric expectation it implies

$0.43$0.47$0.51Sep 1now
LONG price $0.4540implies 74.21%Hover to inspect

What this market settles against

Non-GAAP gross margin for the quarter, expressed as a percentage to two decimal places, as stated in NVIDIA's Q3 FY2027 earnings release.

How the payout is calculated

Settlement is a pure function of the reported figure. There is no discretion at resolution: given the number, anyone can compute the outcome and reproduce it exactly.

// 1. clamp the reported value into the priced domain
bounded   = clamp(reported, 67.05%, 81.95%)

// 2. normalise against the reference value
score     = (bounded − 74.50%) ÷ 74.50%

// 3. map onto the LONG share of collateral
longShare = clamp(0.50 + 12.00 × score, $0.0500, $0.9500)
shortShare = 1.00 − longShare
Reference value
74.50%

The benchmark this market prices surprises against. Fixed at creation and immutable.

Leverage factor
12.00×

LONG share moves this much per 1.00 of proportional surprise.

Priced domain
67.05% to 81.95%

Reported values outside this range settle at the nearest bound.

Payout range
$0.0500 to $0.9500

Hard floor and cap per claim. Neither side can ever be worth nothing or everything.

Fully priced region

Between 71.71% and 77.29% the payoff responds continuously to the size of the surprise. Beyond those points each side is pinned to its clamp, so a price sitting on a clamp no longer implies a single metric value, and the interface says “approx” rather than printing a fabricated number.

Methodology

Margin moves in a far narrower band than revenue, so this market carries a much higher leverage factor (12x versus 2.5x on revenue). A 1% margin surprise is a large event; a 1% revenue surprise is noise. Calibrating sensitivity per metric is why the payoff curve is configured per market rather than globally.

Buying routes through the protocol: your collateral is split into both claims, and the side you did not want is sold into the pool for more of the side you did.
USDCYou pay
0
0.0000USDC~$0.00
NVDA-GM-LYou receive
0
0.0000holding~$0.00 at current price
Market price$0.4540
Max settlementThe highest value one claim can settle at, set by this market's payout cap.$0.9500
Protocol fee0.00%

Settles against the reported figure on Nov 18, 2026. Payouts are capped at $0.9500 and floored at $0.0500 per claim.