TSLA · Q3 2026 Automotive Revenue
AUTOTradingTesla, Inc. · Automotive & Energy · settles in USDC
The benchmark this market prices surprises against. Fixed at creation and immutable.
Pays up to $0.9500
Pays up to $0.9500
880,000.00 sets open interest
Settlement payoff
What one claim is worth at every possible reported automotive revenue
Price history
LONG price and the metric expectation it implies
What this market settles against
Total automotive revenues for the quarter, as disclosed in the revenues table of Tesla's Q3 2026 update deck.
How the payout is calculated
Settlement is a pure function of the reported figure. There is no discretion at resolution: given the number, anyone can compute the outcome and reproduce it exactly.
// 1. clamp the reported value into the priced domain bounded = clamp(reported, $17.20B, $25.80B) // 2. normalise against the reference value score = (bounded − $21.50B) ÷ $21.50B // 3. map onto the LONG share of collateral longShare = clamp(0.50 + 3.00 × score, $0.0500, $0.9500) shortShare = 1.00 − longShare
The benchmark this market prices surprises against. Fixed at creation and immutable.
LONG share moves this much per 1.00 of proportional surprise.
Reported values outside this range settle at the nearest bound.
Hard floor and cap per claim. Neither side can ever be worth nothing or everything.
Fully priced region
Between $18.28B and $24.72B the payoff responds continuously to the size of the surprise. Beyond those points each side is pinned to its clamp, so a price sitting on a clamp no longer implies a single metric value, and the interface says “approx” rather than printing a fabricated number.
Methodology
Tesla discloses automotive and energy revenues separately, which makes the two independently tradeable. A view that energy outgrows automotive is expressible here as two positions rather than one blended stock exposure.
Settles against the reported figure on Oct 21, 2026. Payouts are capped at $0.9500 and floored at $0.0500 per claim.